Σε ελεύθερη μετάφραση ότι
αφορά την Ευρωζώνη μας λέει:
«…Η ύφεση της ευρωζώνης
είναι σίγουρη.
Ενώ το βάθος και η διάρκεια
της δεν μπορεί να προβλεφθεί, καθώς επίσης η συνεχιζόμενη πιστωτική κρίση, και τα
προβλήματα Δημοσίου Χρέους των κρατών.
Η έλλειψη
ανταγωνιστικότητας, και της δημοσιονομικής λιτότητας συνεπάγεται μια σοβαρή
ύφεση…»
Και για την παγκόσμια
οικονομία γράφει:
« Οι προοπτικές για την παγκόσμια οικονομία το 2012 δεν είναι
αρκετά σαφής, αλλά: Θα υπάρχει ύφεση στην Ευρώπη, αναιμική ανάπτυξη στην
καλύτερη περίπτωση στις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες, και η απότομη επιβράδυνση στην Κίνα
και στις περισσότερες αναδυόμενες οικονομίες της αγοράς».
Διαβάστε την πλήρη έκθεση του Ρουμπινί:
Fragile and unbalanced in 2012
Nouriel
Roubini writes:
The outlook for the global economy in 2012 is clear,
but it isn't pretty: recession in Europe, anaemic growth at best in the
United States, and a sharp slowdown in China and in most emerging-market
economies.
Asian economies are exposed to China. Latin
America is exposed to lower commodity prices (as both China and the
advanced economies slow).
Central and Eastern Europe are exposed to the
eurozone. And turmoil in the Middle East is causing serious economic
risks – both there and elsewhere – as geopolitical risk remains high and
thus high oil prices will constrain global growth.
At this point,
a eurozone recession is certain. While its depth and length cannot be
predicted, a continued credit crunch, sovereign-debt problems, lack of
competitiveness, and fiscal austerity imply a serious downturn.
The
US – growing at a snail's pace since 2010 – faces considerable downside
risks from the eurozone crisis. It must also contend with significant
fiscal drag, ongoing deleveraging in the household sector (amid weak job
creation, stagnant incomes, and persistent downward pressure on real
estate and financial wealth), rising inequality and political gridlock.
Elsewhere
among the major advanced economies, the United Kingdom is
double-dipping, as front-loaded fiscal consolidation and eurozone
exposure undermine growth. In Japan, the post-earthquake recovery will
fizzle out as weak governments fail to implement structural reforms.
Meanwhile,
flaws in China's growth model are becoming obvious. Falling property
prices are starting a chain reaction that will have a negative effect on
developers, investment and government revenue. The construction boom is
starting to stall, just as net exports have become a drag on growth,
owing to weakening US and especially eurozone demand. Having sought to
cool the property market by reining in runaway prices, Chinese leaders
will be hard put to restart growth.
They are not alone. On the
policy side, the US, Europe and Japan, too, have been postponing the
serious economic, fiscal and financial reforms that are needed to
restore sustainable and balanced growth.
DROUGOS.GR
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